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August 31, 2010
CORN COMMENTS
Corn harvest is
off and running! Early yield reports are well below
expectations. USDA reported the Illinois corn yield would be five bushels
above last year, however, early reports are 10 to as much as 40 bushels under
expectations. It should be noted that generally early reports give way to
much better yields once harvest reaches later maturing crops, and crop
condition was steady with last week at 70% good to excellent.
Exports were very strong
last week at 45.2 million bushels versus only 37 million last year. So, the
buyers are coming back to the US for their feed needs. Prices should continue
to stay strong based on increasing demand and an outlook of lower production
than has been forecasted all summer. But, caution should always be given to
harvest price pressure. It makes a lot of sense to take advantage of the
current prices and not risk storage!
USDA projected corn
price range is $3.50 - $4.10 per bushel. USDA projected grain sorghum price
range is $3.20 - $3.80 per bushel.
Crop Insurance Revenue
Base Price for corn (most states) is $3.99 per bushel.Crop Insurance Revenue
Base Price for Grain Sorghum (most states) is $3.90 per bushel.
SOYBEANS
Soybean crop condition
was steady with last week at 64% good to excellent. Sudden Death Syndrome has been very prevalent across Iowa and
Illinois, but a record high pod count could offset some of those yield
losses.
Exports were lower last
week at 7 million bushels versus 17 million last year. Strong exports are key
to holding price strength in the soybeans. South America is projecting an
increase of soybean acreage of 3%-5% that could equal a record 70 million
metric ton of production. Chinese demand is expected to stay strong, but current
prices are very attractive and strong sales should be made.
USDA projected soybean
price is $8.50 - $10.00 per bushel. Crop Insurance Revenue Base Price for
soybeans (most states) is $9.23 per bushel.
WHEAT
The Russian Drought
situation continues to propel the wheat market higher. It has now affected
the eastern European crop and a much lower crop size is expected out of the
EU. Canada wheat production will be well off average due to fewer planted
acres and some problems with the growing season. All of this is boding well
for the US wheat producers. USDA is now forecasting exports 36% higher for
the crop year.
Exports last week were
25.5 million bushels, well above the 16.7 million last year. Wheat price
could move either way with still huge stocks of wheat in the US. If the
market settles down and large acres are planted this fall, wheat could see a
downturn in price very easily.
USDA projected wheat
price was raised last week to $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel.
Crop Insurance Revenue
Base Price for wheat (most states) is $5.42 per bushel.
COTTON AND RICE
USDA projected cotton
farm price remains at 62.5 cents per pound for 2009/2010. 2011 prices are
estimated at 61 - 75 cents per pound.
Crop Insurance Revenue
Base Price for cotton (most states) is 72 cents per pound.
USDA projected long
grain rice price was lowered to $9.00 - $10.00 per cwt.
Crop Insurance Revenue
Base Price for rice is 14 cents per pound.
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